Spatial Analysis of the Concentration Patterns of Irregular Migrants in Benghazi Municipality: A Study of Migration Dynamics

Abstract

The study examined the spatial analysis of irregular migrant concentration patterns in Benghazi Municipality, aiming to monitor their numerical and relative distribution, identify their areas of concentration, and analyze the spatial patterns of their distribution using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) tools. The results showed an increase in the number of migrants from 77,884 to 82,866, representing a change of 6.3%, exceeding the national average of 3.8%. The municipality accounted for 76.3% of all migrants in eastern Libya. Nine districts recorded numbers exceeding the arithmetic mean, with Al-Salawi and Al-Berrka districts having the highest numbers, while Al-Jardina, Al-Maqzaha, and Al-Nawaqiya districts had the lowest. The study revealed that North African migrants constituted the largest group at 63.9%. Moran's analysis (I=0.1029) confirmed a positive spatial correlation and a clustered distribution pattern. This was supported by the results of the Getis-Ord Gi* hotspot analysis, which identified statistically significant hotspots in Bu Atni, Khalid Ibn Al-Walid, Al-Qawarsha, and Al-Mukhtar. Kernel density analysis showed the highest densities in the central part of the municipality, decreasing towards the periphery. The study recommends directing humanitarian and service interventions to the identified hotspots, establishing an interactive spatial monitoring system (GIS Dashboard) in Benghazi Municipality, and conducting in-depth qualitative studies.