An Attempt to Model Future Environmental Scenarios for the Tafilalt Oasis System (Southeastern Morocco) by 2050

Abstract

This article seeks to shed light on the environmental situation of the Tafilalt Oasis in order to envision the general features of its future by the year 2050. The article is based on a central issue: the oasis environment of Tafilalt is evolving under the influence of numerous natural and human factors. This evolution follows a particular trajectory that may lead either to improvement or deterioration; therefore, the protection and development of the oasis require an assessment of its future prospects. To address this issue, the study adopted a synthetic approach combining quantitative and qualitative indicators, together with the findings of previous studies and field-observed indicators. The article developed eight theoretical scenarios and four realistic scenarios, from which two scenarios were considered the most likely. The first is the “Degradation Scenario,” under which many oasis settlements are expected to decline and disappear due to decreasing water resources, advancing desertification, Bayoud disease, the failure of development projects, the incompatibility of interventions with the environmental characteristics of the oasis, and population decline. The second is the “Adaptation Scenario,” which anticipates the gradual disappearance of the traditional oasis agricultural system and its replacement by a production system focused mainly on date palms, particularly varieties with high economic returns, such as Medjool and Feggous.